Applying machine learning to improve simulations of a chaotic dynamical system using empirical error correction

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models still show many differences compared with observations. Machine learning has been applied to solve certain prediction problems with great success, and recently it's been proposed that this could replace the role of physically-derived dynamical weather and climate models to give better quality simulations. Here, instead, a framework using machine learning together with physically-derived models is tested, in which it is learnt how to correct the errors of the latter from timestep to timestep. This maintains the physical understanding built into the models, whilst allowing performance improvements, and also requires much simpler algorithms and less training data. This is tested in the context of simulating the chaotic Lorenz '96 system, and it is shown that the approach yields models that are stable and that give both improved skill in initialised predictions and better long-term climate statistics. Improvements in long-term statistics are smaller than for single time-step tendencies, however, indicating that it would be valuable to develop methods that target improvements on longer time scales. Future strategies for the development of this approach and possible applications to making progress on important scientific problems are discussed.Comment: 26p, 7 figures To be published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth System

Quick fabrication VCSELs for characterisation of epitaxial material

A systematic analysis of the performance of VCSELs, fabricated with a decreasing number of structural elements, is used to assess the complexity of fabrication (and therefore time) required to obtain sufficient information on epitaxial wafer suitability. Initially, sub-mA threshold current VCSEL devices are produced on AlGaAs-based material, designed for 940 nm emission, using processing methods widely employed in industry. From there, stripped-back Quick Fabrication (QF) devices, based on a bridge-mesa design, are fabricated and this negates the need for benzocyclcobutane (BCB) planarisation. Devices are produced with three variations on the QF design, to characterise the impact on laser performance from removing time-consuming process steps, including wet thermal oxidation and mechanical lapping used to reduce substrate thickness. An increase in threshold current of 1.5 mA for oxidised QF devices, relative to the standard VCSELs, and a further increase of 1.9 mA for unoxidised QF devices are observed, which is a result of leakage current. The tuning of the emission wavelength with current increases by ~0.1 nm/mA for a VCSEL with a 16 μm diameter mesa when the substrate is unlapped, which is ascribed to the increased thermal resistance. Generally, relative to the standard VCSELs, the QF methods employed do not significantly impact the threshold lasing wavelength and the differences in mean wavelengths of the device types that are observed are attributed to variation in cavity resonance with spatial position across the wafer, as determined by photovoltage spectroscopy measurements

Gain measurements on vertical cavity surface emitting laser material using segmented contact technique

We report direct measurements of the optical gain profile for a vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) epitaxial structure, by characterising the transverse electric (TE) in-plane net modal gain using the segmented contact method

What Is a Group? : Young Children’s Perceptions of Different Types of Groups and Group Entitativity

To date, developmental research on groups has focused mainly on in-group biases and intergroup relations. However, little is known about children’s general understanding of social groups and their perceptions of different forms of group. In this study, 5- to 6-year-old children were asked to evaluate prototypes of four key types of groups: an intimacy group (friends), a task group (people who are collaborating), a social category (people who look alike), and a loose association (people who coincidently meet at a tram stop). In line with previous work with adults, the vast majority of children perceived the intimacy group, task group, and social category, but not the loose association, to possess entitativity, that is, to be a ‘real group.’ In addition, children evaluated group member properties, social relations, and social obligations differently in each type of group, demonstrating that young children are able to distinguish between different types of in-group relations. The origins of the general group typology used by adults thus appear early in development. These findings contribute to our knowledge about children's intuitive understanding of groups and group members' behavior

Caucasian Infants Scan Own- and Other-Race Faces Differently

Young infants are known to prefer own-race faces to other race faces and recognize own-race faces better than other-race faces. However, it is entirely unclear as to whether infants also attend to different parts of own- and other-race faces differently, which may provide an important clue as to how and why the own-race face recognition advantage emerges so early. The present study used eye tracking methodology to investigate whether 6- to 10-month-old Caucasian infants (N = 37) have differential scanning patterns for dynamically displayed own- and other-race faces. We found that even though infants spent a similar amount of time looking at own- and other-race faces, with increased age, infants increasingly looked longer at the eyes of own-race faces and less at the mouths of own-race faces. These findings suggest experience-based tuning of the infant's face processing system to optimally process own-race faces that are different in physiognomy from other-race faces. In addition, the present results, taken together with recent own- and other-race eye tracking findings with infants and adults, provide strong support for an enculturation hypothesis that East Asians and Westerners may be socialized to scan faces differently due to each culture's conventions regarding mutual gaze during interpersonal communication

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistent implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations